There has been talk since the 2016 election that polling is no longer accurate. Many claim the polls badly missed the results in 2016 and 2020 but many disagree. National polls by respected, non-partisan pollsters before the election in 2016 predicted Hillary Clinton would win by about 3 points and she actually won the popular vote by 2 points. Although some claim state polls were off in 2016, most of these “inaccurate” state polls were conducted over a month before the election and before the national polls noticed the race tightening. However, in 2020 the polls did underestimate Donald Trump’s support which had some claiming polls are not reliable.

With many predicting a “red wave” hitting in 2022, some predicted the polls would be off again in 2022. However, this is not the case. Most respected, nonpartisan pollsters had the race a virtual tie before the election. Although Republicans did win the national House vote by 2.8 points, this would be considered a correct prediction statistically. Why did media pundits predict a red wave in 2022, when the polls did not indicate this would occur? Partially because other polling questions (presidential approval and opinions on the economy) seemed to indicate one should occur. 2022 shows us that interpreting polls is still difficult.

Instructors: click the link below to download this week’s lecture for use in your classroom. The deck contains a writing prompt and a debate question as well as other assessment questions.

Download: Public Opinion and the 2022 Election