The U.S. Labor Department released its monthly jobs report Friday and stunned many experts with news that 517,000 jobs had been created for the month of January, greatly exceeding economic projections. Economists had projected that the U.S. economy would create a more modest 185,000 jobs , slowed in part by months of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has increased rates from near zero to the current 4.75 to slow down inflation. Speculation immediately began about whether the Fed would continue with more rate increases or back off with the positive job numbers.

Why were the job estimates so off the mark?

Instructors: click the link below to download this week’s lecture for use in your classroom. The deck contains a writing prompt and a debate question as well as other assessment questions.

Download: CQP_Lecture_Spark_PPT_Biden Touts Strong Jobs Report but Fear of Recession Persists

Videos

News Articles

Job Growth Is a Boost for Biden as He Bets on a Lasting Turnaround

New York Times

2/3/23

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/business/economy/jobs-report-january-biden.html

4 key takeaways from the jaw-dropping January jobs report

CNN

2/3/23

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/03/economy/key-takeaways-jobs-report/index.html

Jobs report shows increase of 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low

CNBC

2/3/23

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html

U.S. jobs report today: Economy added 517,000 jobs despite recession risk; unemployment fell to 3.4%

USA Today

2/3/23

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/02/03/january-jobs-report-today-unemployment-rate/11170452002/

Biden hails January jobs report, waves off inflation question

Reuters

2/3/23

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-hails-january-jobs-report-waves-off-inflation-question-2023-02-03/

Jobs blowout: What the employment report means for Biden and Powell

Politico

2/3/23

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/03/employment-report-biden-powell-00081067

Markets are surging as fears about the economy fade. Why the optimists could be wrong

NPR

2/4/23

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/04/1152516637/wall-street-stocks-rally-federal-reserve-inflation-recession

US job growth unexpectedly surges in January as economy adds 517,000 new positions

Fox Business

2/3/23

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-job-growth-unexpectedly-surges-january-economy-adds-new-positions

Assessment

Writing: Explain why all presidents want to claim credit for positive economic news. Is President Biden declaring victory too soon with economic uncertainty still at play?

Debate: Is the conversation about economic health too often centered on job creation and not enough on other indicators such as average wage growth?

Poll: Are potential job losses in the future an acceptable tradeoff for lower prices on consumer goods?

Short Answer: How do the recent economic developments complicate the Republican message against President Biden and the Democrats.

News Quiz

True/False

The U.S is officially in a recession. (T/F)

Construction was the second highest creator of jobs in January. (T/F)

Despite the surprising January jobs report, many economists expect job growth to slow substantially in 2023.  (T/F)

Multiple Choice

To what rate does Fed Chairman Jerome Powell want to reduce the U.S. inflation rate?

1. 2 percent
2. 4 percent
3. 5 percent
4. 6 percent

Approximately how many job openings are listed for every available worker?

1. one
2. two
3. three
4. four

What platform will President Biden have this week that will give him a large audience to tout the economic gains during his administration?

1. the president’s weekly press conference
2. the president’s Tik Tok channel
3. the State of the Union address
4. the president’s guest appearance on Saturday Night Live